All Fall Down? Urban Infrastructure and Permafrost in the Russian Arctic

Soviet policy for settling the Russian North led to extensive in-migration in the 1960s - 1980s, resulting in massive population growth and a staggering pace of urbanization in the Soviet Arctic. Multistory houses, road networks, and other infrastructure were built, transforming pristine tundra into anthropogenic and urban landscapes. The Soviet emphasis on developing Russia's Arctic regions, despite the cost and difficulty of doing so, has left a problematic legacy for modern Russia. One of the common problems shared by many Soviet-era urban communities is the debilitated state of infrastructure built on permafrost. This article provides a brief overview of the challenges associated with urban development in permafrost regions in an attempt to identify major causes of present-day infrastructure problems in the communities of the Russian North

Fällt alles zusammen? Urbane Infrastruktur und Permafrost in der russischen Arktis

Die sowjetische Politik zur Besiedelung des hohen Nordens hat in den 1960er bis 1980er Jahren zu einer massiven Migrationsbewegung dorthin geführt, die in der sowjetischen Arktis ein massives Bevölkerungswachstum und ein atemberaubendes Tempo der Urbanisierung zur Folge hatte. Mehrstöckige Gebäude, Straßennetze und andere Infrastruktur wurden errichtet, die die unberührte Tundra in anthropogene und urbane Landschaften verwandelten. Die – ungeachtet aller Kosten und Schwierigkeiten – starke Konzentration der Sowjetunion auf die Entwicklung der arktischen Gebiete hat dem modernen Russland ein problematisches Erbe hinterlassen. Eines der verbreiteten Probleme, das von vielen urbanen Gemeinschaften aus der Sowjetzeit geteilt wird, ist der fragile Zustand der auf Permafrostböden errichteten Infrastruktur. Dieser Beitrag bietet einen kurzen Überblick über die Herausforderungen, die im Zusammenhang mit urbaner Entwicklung in Permafrost-Gegenden entstehen. Das soll dem Versuch dienen, die Gründe für gegenwärtige Infrastrukturprobleme in vielen Siedlungen des russischen Nordens zu ermitteln

Permafrost hydrology in changing climatic conditions: seasonal variability of stable isotope composition in rivers in discontinuous permafrost

Role of changing climatic conditions on permafrost degradation and hydrology was investigated in the transition zone between the tundra and forest ecotones at the boundary of continuous and discontinuous permafrost of the lower Yenisei River. Three watersheds of various sizes were chosen to represent the characteristics of the regional landscape conditions. Samples of river flow, precipitation, snow cover, and permafrost ground ice were collected over the watersheds to determine isotopic composition of potential sources of water in a river flow over a two year period. Increases in air temperature over the last forty years have resulted in permafrost degradation and a decrease in the seasonal frost which is evident from soil temperature measurements, permafrost and active-layer monitoring, and analysis of satellite imagery. The lowering of the permafrost table has led to an increased storage capacity of permafrost affected soils and a higher contribution of ground water to river discharge during winter months. A progressive decrease in the thickness of the layer of seasonal freezing allows more water storage and pathways for water during the winter low period making winter discharge dependent on the timing and amount of late summer precipitation. There is a substantial seasonal variability of stable isotopic composition of river flow. Spring flooding corresponds to the isotopic composition of snow cover prior to the snowmelt. Isotopic composition of river flow during the summer period follows the variability of precipitation in smaller creeks, while the water flow of larger watersheds is influenced by the secondary evaporation of water temporarily stored in thermokarst lakes and bogs. Late summer precipitation determines the isotopic composition of texture ice within the active layer in tundra landscapes and the seasonal freezing layer in forested landscapes as well as the composition of the water flow during winter months

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Environment

The topic of this issue is the "Environment". Firstly, Ellie Martus examines Russia’s solid waste problem, arguing that despite strong policy activity, the scope of the “rubbish reforms” is limited and focused on attracting private-sector investment rather than addressing broader issues around recycling and sustainability. Secondly, Nikolay I. Shiklomanov focuses on the problematic Soviet-era legacy of decrepit Arctic infrastructure in urban areas in permafrost regions. Finally, Elizabeth Plantan provides a brief overview of environmental activism in Russia.Das Thema dieser Ausgabe ist die "Umwelt". Als Erstes untersucht Ellie Martus das russische Abfallproblem und argumentiert, dass trotz starker politischer Aktivitäten der Umfang der "Müllreformen" begrenzt ist. Im Zuge dieser Reformen konzentriert man sich eher auf das Gewinnen von Investoren aus dem Privatsektor als auf breiteren Themen wie Recycling und Nachhaltigkeit. Als Zweites befasst sich Nikolay I. Shiklomanov mit einem problematischen Erbe aus der Sowjetzeit: Verfallene arktische Infrastruktur in städtischen Gebieten, die in Permafrostregionen liegen. Zum Schluss gibt Elizabeth Plantan einen kurzen Überblick über den Umweltaktivismus in Russland.ISSN:1863-042

The costs of Arctic infrastructure damages due to permafrost degradation

Climate change has adverse impacts on Arctic natural ecosystems and threatens northern communities by disrupting subsistence practices, limiting accessibility, and putting built infrastructure at risk. In this paper, we analyze spatial patterns of permafrost degradation and associated risks to built infrastructure due to loss of bearing capacity and thaw subsidence in permafrost regions of the Arctic. Using a subset of three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models under SSP245 and 585 scenarios we estimated changes in permafrost bearing capacity and ground subsidence between two reference decades: 2015–2024 and 2055–2064. Using publicly available infrastructure databases we identified roads, railways, airport runways, and buildings at risk of permafrost degradation and estimated country-specific costs associated with damage to infrastructure. The results show that under the SSP245 scenario 29% of roads, 23% of railroads, and 11% of buildings will be affected by permafrost degradation, costing $182 billion to the Arctic states by mid-century. Under the SSP585 scenario, 44$276 billion, with airport runways adding an additional $0.5 billion. Russia is expected to have the highest burden of costs, ranging from$115 to $169 billion depending on the scenario. Limiting global greenhouse gas emissions has the potential to significantly decrease the costs of projected damages in Arctic countries, especially in Russia. The approach presented in this study underscores the substantial impacts of climate change on infrastructure and can assist to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies in Arctic states

Land Cover Change in the Lower Yenisei River Using Dense Stacking of Landsat Imagery in Google Earth Engine

Climate warming is occurring at an unprecedented rate in the Arctic due to regional amplification, potentially accelerating land cover change. Measuring and monitoring land cover change utilizing optical remote sensing in the Arctic has been challenging due to persistent cloud and snow cover issues and the spectrally similar land cover types. Google Earth Engine (GEE) represents a powerful tool to efficiently investigate these changes using a large repository of available optical imagery. This work examines land cover change in the Lower Yenisei River region of arctic central Siberia and exemplifies the application of GEE using the random forest classification algorithm for Landsat dense stacks spanning the 32-year period from 1985 to 2017, referencing 1641 images in total. The semiautomated methodology presented here classifies the study area on a per-pixel basis utilizing the complete Landsat record available for the region by only drawing from minimally cloud- and snow-affected pixels. Climatic changes observed within the study area’s natural environments show a statistically significant steady greening (~21,000 km2 transition from tundra to taiga) and a slight decrease (~700 km2) in the abundance of large lakes, indicative of substantial permafrost degradation. The results of this work provide an effective semiautomated classification strategy for remote sensing in permafrost regions and map products that can be applied to future regional environmental modeling of the Lower Yenisei River region